← Writing

The case for second-tier markets (when Tier 1 CPIs hit double digits)

CPI to CPA “efficiency” (let’s call it Install-to-Revenue Ratio), how cheaply installs turn into paying customers, is something we don’t talk about enough. It’s not only “install to paid”.

CPM, IPM, CPI, CPA, pricing, price tolerance, all shape the ratio.

Yes, the US matters and Tier 1 holds money, but the real question is: which countries actually give your app the best CPI to CPA ratio? Pricing power and market saturation skew this hard. Some markets are so saturated that purchase-optimized CPIs are too expensive to ever sell profitably. You’re staring at 40 to 50x jumps from CPI to CPA. Meanwhile, another country might have softer CPIs and enough buying intent to make the math work.

I’ve seen an account profit in a Tier 2 country because CPIs were dramatically cheaper and the app still converted. Even if conversion is a bit lower, when CPI is about 10x cheaper, you’re still way ahead. Simple math: $2 CPI at 3% pay-through beats $15 CPI at 4%. That’s $66 CPA versus $375.

The same app, two markets. The cheaper installs win even with the lower conversion rate.

But cheap CPIs don’t automatically mean healthy margins. This is where pricing power comes in, and where data like Adapty’s pricing index tells the other half of the story. Their chart shows annual plan prices staying tightly clustered around $40+ across Western Europe and North America, then falling to $25 to $30 in most Tier 2 regions and even lower beyond.

So your acquisition cost might only drop three to four times outside Tier 1, but your revenue ceiling can fall five to ten times. That gap decides whether a market is a goldmine or a trap.

The real play is not necessarily chasing low CPIs. Finding the middle zone matters: countries where pricing hasn’t collapsed yet, but CPIs are still soft enough for scale. That’s where CPI to CPA to LTV alignment actually holds.

There’s no master dataset for that, but maybe that’s the point. The apps that win are the ones mapping these ratios themselves.