How much of your iOS organic is actually paid Meta traffic?

I am Samet Durgun, a fractional Head of UA. I run paid UA for subscription apps and mobile games and write up what I find in the accounts I manage. This piece sits under what signal engineering fixes; more about me.

People get confused about iOS organic installs and how much of that bucket is misattributed paid. It is easier to check than it looks. Two reports will tell you.

1. App Store Connect

Open Analytics, then Downloads, and group by source.

App Referrer is where clicks from Meta ads land, along with links from any other app. That part is measurable, and it is the part everyone already knows.

The part people miss is App Store Search. A lot of paid social users never install from the click. They see the ad, then go and search the app name a day later. Those installs land in search, not in referrer, and leave no click to trace. That is part of why I keep 1 day view attribution on in Meta.

Watch whether App Store Search rises and falls with spend.

2. The MMP against Meta

Plot daily organic installs against daily paid installs, one dot per day.

Then run the same chart for Android. The install referrer still works there, so it should come out close to flat.

Platform	Slope	R squared	95% band	On days with 100 more paid installs
iOS	0.277	0.56	0.229 to 0.326	About 28 more organic installs
Android	0.059	0.21	0.037 to 0.081	About 6 more organic installs, a small halo from paid
Gap, iOS minus Android	0.218	Not applicable	The bands do not overlap	About 22 more per 100 on iOS, the part to chase first

One account, 103 days since 1 May 2026. Organic installs from the MMP against Meta installs, one dot per day. The Android figure per 100 installs and the gap row are my arithmetic on the two slopes and their bands.

How to read the two reports

Report	What you see	What it points at
App Store Connect, Downloads by source	App Store Search rises and falls with spend	A share of what gets called organic is paid.
App Store Connect, Downloads by source	App Store Search is high whatever the spend	Search can stay high when the app ranks well or already has brand demand. Control for that before reading the result.
MMP organic against Meta installs, one dot per day	The cloud sits flat	Little sign of a leak.
MMP organic against Meta installs	The cloud slopes	The leak mixed with the real halo of paid. Demand that moves with budget can push the slope either way. The intercept is a rough guide to the organic baseline.
The same chart for iOS and Android	iOS slopes while Android stays close to flat	Most likely ATT, since seasonality would usually move both. The gap between the two slopes is the part to chase.

Each row gives the report, the pattern you see and what it points at.

These charts tell you where to look. To size how many installs Meta drives, you need a holdout. In a cohort read, keep the attributed, modeled and unattributed layers apart, as the cohort article sets out. If you suspect part of your iOS organic is paid Meta traffic, I check this for an account in the growth audit, which you can book on its own at any spend level.

Pull the reports and check it for yourself.